Driving Project Success with the Five Case Model: A Conversation with Dr Joe Flanagan

Dr Joe Flanagan, a seasoned expert in public service and project delivery, is perhaps best known as the architect of the Five Case Model methodology and author of the HM Treasury Guides on the development of the programme and project business cases. With over 50 years of experience in public service, Joe's work has helped shape how we think about developing business cases for programmes and projects, both in the UK and internationally. His work has helped both public and private sectors make more informed, cost-effective decisions when it comes to investment and programme, project delivery.

In this article, we explore Joe's thoughts on the enduring relevance of the Five Case Model; why so many projects fail to meet expectations; and what we can do to improve programme/project delivery moving forward.

A Wealth of Experience in Public Service

Joe's career spans several decades, with notable roles including Commercial Director for NHS IT in England and Wales and involvement in the National Programme for IT (NPfIT), and Director of Investment Policy and Appraisal for NHS Wales, where he guided Health Boards and the Welsh Government through the development and appraisal of their schemes.

Joe began his career at HM Treasury in 1972, and by the time he retired in 2017 had worked with many overseas Governments and agencies, including over 30 UK government departments on countless schemes.

Following his retirement, Joe continues to make a significant impact, notably in his role as Joint Chief Examiner for the Better Business Case Programmes Accreditation and Training Scheme.

The Five Case Model: Will It Endure?

The Five Case Model is now a well-established methodology used to assess the viability of investment proposals, and Joe is confident that it will endure. The model’s five key questions - covering the scoping and planning of the strategic, economic, commercial, financial, and management dimensions of the business case - provide a robust framework for decision-making that ensures schemes align with strategic objectives, offer optimal value for money, are affordable, and can be commercially and realistically delivered.

Joe explains, "Regardless of whether or not we call it the Five Case Model, those are fundamental questions that won't go away": in essence, the Five Case Model is here to stay because these core questions address the fundamentals of any successful project. A significant issue with business cases today is that they are often too lengthy and time-consuming to create. Joe believes this can be avoided if people follow the key steps and actions outlined in the guidance, and interpret and use the advice given pragmatically and proportionately.

Why Do So Many Business Cases Fail?

Despite the solid framework provided by the Five Case Model, many organizations still struggle with developing effective business cases. Joe identifies a key reason for this: people often rush into projects without fully considering the core questions the Five Case Model addresses. Too often, business cases are written retrospectively, after a project has already started, which leads to sub-optimal planning.

Joe points out that one of the biggest issues in project delivery, in both the public or private sectors, is a lack of thoughtful planning before committing resources. "Once you realize that only one in ten projects will be delivered to time, specification, and cost, the problem becomes apparent," Joe says: most projects go over budget, deliver less than expected, and take much longer than anticipated to deliver"

It is the lack of structured thinking before starting projects that leads to inefficiencies and cost overruns; and often, the end result is far from the original expectations.

The Role of People in Successful Delivery

One of Joe’s most significant insights is that people are the most crucial factor in ensuring the success of projects. While tools, techniques, and methodologies like the Five Case Model are essential, they are only effective if the right people are involved in the process. Engaging the right stakeholders and fostering a collaborative environment during key workshops can make a world of difference in developing a solid business case.

Joe continued, “People too often fixate on “writing the business case,” but it is about thinking rather than writing. The process is all about scoping and planning a proposal for intervention and spend; the business case is simply the repository for the evidence base."

To help, Joe describes two critical workshops: the first focuses on defining the case for change and investment objectives, while the second explores different options and appraises the solutions. He notes, "If you engage the right people, you’ll get the right answers."

Joe highlights a key framework he introduced to the Treasury Green Book, the options framework filter, which helps project teams to appraise a wide range of options rather than simply picking the one that seems easiest or most convenient. By thinking through all possibilities systematically, teams can avoid the trap of retrofitting a business case around an already-decided solution.

Joe explained that “The primary advantage of the options framework filter is its ability to help key stakeholders think fast and slow and quickly identify and appraise options for a scheme during a workshop; it can be applied to policies, portfolios, programmes, as well as projects.”

Elaborating on his earlier point, Joe said, “Too many public sector procurements worldwide fail to achieve optimal value for money, because they select the "best of the worst" from a poorly conceived shortlist, rather than identify the wide range of possible options in a long list from the beginning”.

By incorporating the options framework filter into workshops with the right stakeholders and end-users, this challenge can be effectively addressed, leading to improved public value from existing spending.

The Importance of Structured Thinking

Developing critical thinking skills is essential for anyone involved in business case development. Joe believes the key to fostering such skills lies in structured workshops that guide participants through the various stages of planning. He recalls a workshop in which two groups, one focused on IT and the other on service transformation, initially disagreed about the purpose of a project. However, through a structured approach, they were able to align their thinking and clarify their investment objectives.

Joe is also a strong advocate for involving end users in the process. Engaging the people who will ultimately benefit from or use the project can lead to more effective, innovative, and cost-efficient solutions. He shares a memorable example from a road development project where lorry drivers helped identify a simple solution to a traffic problem—creating lay-bys to alleviate congestion—rather than the initially proposed, costly road expansion.

The Role of the Public in Shaping Effective Policy

In Joe's view, successful project delivery is not limited to the private or public sectors alone. Even policy development can benefit from the structured thinking that the HM Treasury Green Book encourages. Joe has worked with Governments to use Green Book tools and techniques to develop policy and programme strategies, which is an approach not often seen in traditional policy development.

He believes that good policy should be based on thoughtful planning rather than ad-hoc decisions. Politicians, he says, often come up with policies on the fly—such as the idea of a high-speed train and then try to figure out where to put it. A better approach would involve thinking through the policy’s objectives and ensuring that any investment is aligned with those goals from the start.

Moving Forward: A Call for Better Decision-Making

In Joe’s view, improving project and programme delivery boils down to two key things: engaging the right people and applying a structured, thoughtful approach to business case development. By asking the right questions upfront, engaging stakeholders in meaningful discussions, and embracing the Five Case Model, we can make better decisions and avoid costly mistakes.

The key takeaway from Joe’s insights is clear: successful projects and programmes require careful thinking, collaboration, and planning. As we move forward, it's essential to apply these principles and tools more consistently across both the public and private sectors to ensure we get the best value for our investments.

If there's one thing that stands out from this conversation, it's that while frameworks and models like the Five Case Model are important, it’s the people who engage with them—thinking critically, collaborating effectively, and making informed decisions—that ultimately drive project success.

Better Business Cases TM

Better Business Cases training and certification is based on the ‘Five Case Model’ – the UK government’s best practice approach to developing spending proposals and enabling effective business decisions.

To learn more about how to develop proposals that accurately scope an initiative and secure management support and funding visit our Better Business Cases product page.